Blue Wave A Comin’
The democratic wing of the Democratic party is rubbing its collective hands together at the prospect of a tsunami of right thinking legislators who will be elected in November. The House, maybe even the Senate, will be controlled by Democrats. RESIST prevails! Let the impeachment proceedings begin.
It could happen. A combination of energized progressive Democrats, demoralized Republicans and apathetic independents could produce that result. Mueller’s team could produce a blockbuster. Trump could do something so outrageous that it would alienate independents, and maybe even his loyal base.
However, some caveats are in order. The first is that Democrats might regret having their prayers answered. If they take the House (a real possibility), they might pass an impeachment resolution. Getting 67 votes in the Senate to convict is a much heavier lift. Were that vote to fail, the voters might respond the same way they did to the Clinton impeachment. If that vote were to succeed, we would have President Pence, who, unlike Donald Trump, is a genuine social conservative.
The second caveat is that the blue tsunami may be a mirage, for a number of reasons.
Lots of folks vote their pocketbooks. The economy is going better than it has in a long time. The truly important indicators — labor force participation, take home pay, productivity growth, business confidence and business investment — are all sporting up arrows. The recent tax law put money in a lot of folks’ pocketbooks. Nancy Pelosi may think the amounts involved are de minimus, but she’s rich. The Walmart clerks who got a raise to $11/hr. may take a different view. As the Democrats predicted, lots of the tax savings went to retained earnings, dividends and share buybacks. But that money is not sitting in Scrooge McDuck’s vault. If it is being invested in productivity enhancing goods and services; if it is funding startups; if it is being spent on consumer goods, the result is an expanding economy. Economic growth really does improve the lives of most everybody.
But . . . you say . . . the tax cut adds to the deficit, which will hamper economic growth. You’re right. In the long run, the economy will be crippled by the deficit. However, that is the long run. The additional deficit created by the tax cut (somewhat offset by additional growth) is a rounding error in comparison to the real deficit problem. Social Security, Medicare and public pension plan shortfalls are the problem. Neither party is even talking about addressing those problems, and the long run will not arrive before November of this year.
The second cautionary note is the shape of the current political landscape. The level of unpredictability has gone up dramatically. There are political earthquakes happening the world over. Consider the magnitude of rejection of the political establishment represented by the election of Donald Trump to be our president. A dozen Republicans vied for the nomination, at least four of them in a very viable fashion, with ample funds and support from the political establishment. Donald left all of them in the dust. Hillary was the heir apparent. She had ample money and a united establishment behind her. As it turns out, Bernie would probably have been the nominee if the DNC had not had a fist on the scale. Hillary’s victory was confidently predicted by all gurus. I was asked to join a pool picking the hour her victory would be announced and the margin of victory in electoral votes. A Trump win was not on offer. The electorate spat on the establishment.
A related phenomenon is the unreliability of polling in the last few years. The pollsters have been consistently off base. There were obviously a lot of Trump voters who refused to be polled or lied to pollsters. Same with Brexit. Same with a number of lesser elections around the world. For reasons that have not been made clear to me, polling has lost a lot of its predictive value. Predictions of a blue wave based on polling data should be taken with several pounds of salt.
One of the major reasons for optimism about Democratic electoral prospects is the resounding symphony of Trump critique. NYT, the Post, CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN, MSNBC, Politico, etc. have a critical microscope on Trump’s every deed and word . . . looking for the chance to hyperventilate. Comedy Central, SNL, and all the late night offerings on network TV are pushing the outer limits of creativity to come up with another Trump joke. Trump haters are thrilled. They tune in; ratings are strong. But conversion of others does not seem to be happening. His approval ratings seem to be going up, and that polling number has been pretty reliable. Independent voters and Never Trump conservatives aren’t buying into the narrative. It does not seem to occur to the Trump critics that scorn is not a very powerful conversion tool. Some liberal commentators have even suggested that the symphony is too long and loud; that it may turn out to be counterproductive.
One has to wonder what the Democrats are offering in the event they are given the reins of power again. What is their agenda? A few months ago, Nancy Pelosi announced, with appropriate fanfare, a manifesto. I’m willing to bet $10 to a stale donut that you can’t cite the contents for me. Actually, stale donut would be a good metaphor for her effort.
There are two themes I can discern. The first is . . . we hate Trump. That one may not work. The second is universal health care. That narrative has some appeal, but the appeal may wither under scrutiny. Single payer is a euphemism for you, dear taxpayer. Medicare for all sounds good, until you are informed that the Medicare we have is under water (paying out billions more than it is taking in), and going deeper by the day as 10,000 baby boomers turn 65. Even the fictitious trust fund will be broke in 2030. We also have a shinning example of single payer currently in operation — The Veterans Administration.
I haven’t seen national numbers, but here are some from California. The legislature has a bill for pregnancy-to-grave care for all. The estimated cost is $400 billion/yr. Let’s ignore the fact that a government program hasn’t come in on budget since the Ice Age, and stipulate to that number. Half is supposed to come from existing federal programs, and half from new taxes. The California income tax rate (theoretically temporary when it was pitched to voters) is 13.5%, the highest in the nation. There is no exemption for capital gains. Revenues are heavily dependent on high earners. The problem is that most high earners have a volatile income stream. When the economy gets a cold, the State budget gets pneumonia. The State’s current TOTAL budget is $130 billion. Health care nirvana requires that number to increase by 150%. Confiscating every dime from every rich person in the State ain’t gonna raise that kind of money, especially during a recession. Voters might be forced to look in the mirror to find the source of those funds.
Last, we have the shape a tsunami is liable to take, which may prove problematic for those fondly hoping to see it arrive. Democrats have won some special elections in red and purple districts. Democrats have been giddy about those outcomes. The problem is that those victorious Democrats campaigned in the center of the political spectrum, or right of center, and said they would not vote for Nancy as Speaker. The last time Democrats took the majority, there were 27 Blue Dogs — candidates carefully selected by Rahm Emanuel for their pragmatic positions on issues. Promises to the contrary notwithstanding, they voted Nancy’s party line most of the time once elected. Those voting records came back to haunt them in subsequent elections and none of them remain in Congress. The new Blue Dogs might take that lesson to heart. They might even vote against the impeachment resolution.
I believe that the Democrats would be best served by trying to settle the civil war within their own party. They should develop an agenda that would resonate across a broad cross section of the electorate, especially resonate with those registered in neither party, who will soon be the largest segment of the electorate. Something akin to the agenda espoused by the recently elected Democrats. We might even be able to heal the poisonous partisan divide if there was a useful program on offer that we could unite behind.
