Dumb Like a Fox
All right thinking people hate Donald Trump. They also think he is an ignorant buffoon. That judgment may be flawed. Perhaps as a result of his own thought process, or perhaps as a result of astute advice, he appears to have acquired some political savvy.
During the 2018 campaign, Donald devoted time and fund raising efforts to a number of Senate races. He paid much less attention to House races. Belatedly, he has discovered what a pain it is to have zealots in the House issuing a tsunami of subpoenas, many of which have nothing to do with his performance as President. I believe he has decided on a path that will increase his odds of reelection and facilitate a recapture by Republicans of the House.
His plan seems to be to goad the House into filing Articles of Impeachment. If he is successful in that campaign, none of the logical outcomes seem destined to help the Democrats.
If Trump continues to stiff requests for information and pursues an aggressive litigation and publicity strategy, failure to go forward with impeachment proceedings will enrage the Democratic base, stoking more belligerence and alienating swing voters.
If an impeachment vote reaches the floor, the Democrats are in real trouble. They took a majority by running 30+ candidates advertising themselves as moderates, who would eschew partisanship and work to get things done. Either those folks vote for a trial in the Senate and risk losing their seats, or they vote against and the impeachment campaign ends in ignominy.
If the matter reaches the Senate, all Republicans and a few Democrats up for reelection in fly-over country will probably vote no. Impeachment won’t get anywhere near a majority, much less the two thirds required. That would be even more ignominious.
Speaker Pelosi is walking a tightrope — trying to placate her left flank while recognizing the dangers of an impeachment vote. I think Trump’s hand is jerking on the rope.
Democrats would be better off to change the subject. They should try to find some areas of common ground to establish a record of achievement, and sell themselves in 2020 as the party that can get things done for the American people.
