God Bless American Democracy
The election of Donald Trump created a storm of angst amongst the great and good (G&G). There were and are dire warnings of looming fascism and belligerent nationalism just over the horizon. I think this caterwauling overlooks the two most important lessons to be taken from the benighted presence of Trump in the Oval Office.
G&G has buried its head in the sand when it comes to analyzing the reasons for Trump’s victory. How is it that 49% of the electorate in 2016 symbolically flipped the bird at the entire political establishment? Living in a Davos bubble for an extended period of time seems to have produced an inability to see that global warming summits and an announcement that coal would no longer be mined did not sit well with some of the citizenry. Clinging to guns and God is not seen as a vice in flyover country. Scorn for rednecks, evangelicals, deniers and deplorables seems to have created pushback. Instead of trying to find a scapegoat for Hillary’s defeat — Comey, Putin, misogamy — a long look in the mirror would be in order.
Much more important is the revelation that American democratic institutions are alive and well. Trump is hemmed in on every side by the design of our political system. The Founding Fathers (Abigail Adams being the only Founding Mother in an auxiliary role) knew what they were doing. They had a clear eyed view of human nature and the tendency of power to corrupt.
We recently had a cabinet officer resign due to profound policy differences with the President. That is a significant act of a significant citizen, which may well reverberate for years.
The Federal Reserve had made of show of displaying its independence. A failure by Janet to raise interest rates in service of a Hillary victory was, in my view, a dereliction of duty. A real interest rates at zero or below almost inevitably creates asset bubbles and counterproductive stretches for yield. The real rate of long term debt should be about 250 basis points above the inflation rate. The Fed is moving in that direction, Trump’s tweets notwithstanding.
The 2018 voters sent 40 new Democrats to the House. Trump is about to be tortured by a thousand subpoenas. The NYT mag last week featured a heroic cover portrait of Nadler, Schiff and Clyburn. Don’t know why they left Maxine Waters out of the picture. Inside was an extensive article with a litany of possible avenues of inquiry — in the event that the new chairpersons hadn’t thought of every possible way to torment Trump. His lawyers and appointees will spend the next two years in the fight of their lives.
Two of the most effective (from the perspective of those opposed to regulatory overreach) cabinet secretaries have been hounded from office due to exposure of their spending habits.
Federal courts have stymied Trump’s agenda at every term. They have done so, in many instances, in a blatantly ideological fashion. However, no court order has been defied. Some have been successfully appealed. All have been honored.
The most important thing is that Trump skates on very thin ice, even if he does not realize the peril. The House would impeach him in a nanosecond. It takes 67 votes in the Senate to convict. The Democrats have 47. If 20 Republican senators turn against him, he’s gone. If Republicans in the Senate begin to believe that Trump will take their party down with him, they will turn on him.
The system is working! We should all be thankful that it is.
