Little Rocket Man
The conventional view is that the Singapore summit was a waste of time and a propaganda victory for one of history’s great thugs. I disagree. I think that the Trump sanctions regime may have created a genuine opportunity for a deal. Trump hysteria in the media has obscured the prospect of a significant change.
In thinking about the DPRK’s nuclear threat, we make a mistake thinking in modern diplomatic terms. The mind needs to roll back several centuries to the era of war lords, czars, sultans and kings. The top of the hill was a hazardous place, with contenders and conspirators on all sides. A new czar needed to eliminate pretenders to the throne and alternate power sources as soon (and as ruthlessly) as possible. Siblings and cousins were slain. Rivals were bought off. Kim has slaughtered over one hundred members of his inner circle, including his half brother and uncle. Some he shot personally. Some were executed with an antiaircraft weapon. This isn’t a WTO/think tank/Davos kind of guy. This is the Kim III, Emperor of North Korea.
When emperors make deals, they do so with force, and/or the threat of force, and/or taking of hostages. Signed deals are a waste of time and will not be honored. Kim’s predecessors started violating the deals they signed before the ink was dry. Any real deal they arrive at involves exchange of family members who will be kept to insure compliance.
Why might Little Rocket Man want to make a real deal with Trump? Because he needs something Trump can provide — hard currency. Trump may have put in place a set of barriers, including arrangements with China, that are actually effective. Kim needs a loyal army and a loyal administrative elite. To keep their loyalty, he needs to provide a (relatively) luxurious life style to the palace guard. To do that, he needs real money to buy luxury goods for the elite and pay operating expenses for the army. So, we have something to trade.
What might a deal look like? Kim needs to maintain four hostages. He could keep in place a cadre of scientists to maintain/rapidly expand a nuclear arsenal. He could hide a few ICBMs with nuclear tipped warheads to threaten America. He could hide a larger number of medium range missiles capable of devastating Japan. The agreement would allow him to keep the 30,000+ long range and expertly hardened artillery pieces aimed as Seoul. He could then dismantle most of his missile and nuclear programs with great fanfare. In return, he would be admitted to the world’s trading system and get a lot of hard cash from China, South Korea, Japan and America. He would also get a credible guarantee from us to avoid working for regime change. Trump and Kim could walk away winners. The tens of thousands of inmates in Kim’s concentration camps would be losers. The cause of democracy would be a loser.
We should have put the Kim family out of business years ago. We should have built a boost phase anti-ballistic missile system that rendered his threats hollow years ago. We didn’t do either. That leaves a really ugly deal as the best outcome on offer.
