Phoenix Rising?
Donald Trump has killed the Republican party. The old guard has fled into exile; the rest have signed on to Trumpocracy. Conservative intellectuals are in hiding. The demise of the Weekly Standard was the coup d’ grace. Trump skepticism killed it.
Here is my ugly prognosis for our political future, near term. The Democrats win the presidency in 2020, keep their House majority, and get even in the Senate. Since the energy in the Democratic party is on the left, the country moves briskly down the path to socialism, crossing minor speed bumps thrown up by Republican senators and originalist judges along the way.
Socialism has been tried many times and never worked, but its allure is unquenchable. Nothing sells like free lunch. The problem is very simple and mathematical. Over time, no society can consume more wealth than it produces. The ugly outcome can be postponed by borrowing and money printing, but the outcome is inevitable. Government control of the economy, whether by outright ownership or regulation, inhibits productivity. Management decisions are political, not economic. Incentives are skewed.
But . . . you are screaming . . . how about Scandinavia??? Norway lives on oil revenue. The others have vibrant and genuinely capitalist export sectors and even they are scaling back their welfare programs due to budget constraints. How about Cuba? It’s poor, but eliminated income inequality (except for the Party elite), and has free health care. It originally survived on Russian subsidies, then Venezuelan oil. Thanks to President Obama, the new source of cash is American tourists. It is also bringing back the private sector a bit at a time. By the way, health care is free, unless you need medicine or treatment. In those instances, payment is required.
The new Socialists ignore history, because most of them haven’t read any history. Even if they have, current history faculties are filled with folks who believe that Western Civilization is history’s greatest blight. What’s more, the blight was primarily caused by capitalism.
Those who believe that the fiscal chickens will come home to roost should be prepared. Like the mythical bird, a conservative movement can emerge from the current heap of Trumpist ashes. It should spend its time in exile developing a program that combines sound economic principals with the art of the electorally possible. Ideological purity will not get the job done. Social conservatives will continue to be a shrinking minority.
Some platform items might include:
An abortion plank that acknowledges Roe v Wade as the law of the land, but defends the religious freedom of those who think abortion is a grave sin, and confines its legislative efforts to banning late term abortions.
A trade plank that favors free trade, but only with those nations willing to reciprocate, and promises generous benefits and training for workers displaced by trade.
An energy plank that acknowledges the possible dangers of global warming, but pushes an “all of the above” solution: Fracking and exporting natural gas as a bridge fuel; battery technology research to render wind and solar viable; and revival of nuclear and hydro power generation. Government funded research should acknowledge skeptics and explore carbon sequestration.
An immigration plank that favors LEGAL immigration, to a maximum of .5% of population per year, with priority given for those bringing skills to our economy. No citizenship granted without assimilation and minimum fluency in English. The guest worker program should be expanded.
A social welfare plank that mandates long term financial viability, uses means testing and mandates workfare for those able to work.
My macro prediction is that our beloved country will experiment with socialism and find it wanting. Capitalists of America, unite! Our time may come. Let’s be ready with a brand that will sell.
