The Blue Wavelet
The projected Democratic tsunami did not materialize. A medium size wave would be a better description. The most salient feature was the recapture of the House by the Democrats. The outcome, however, is a bit more subtle than appearances would suggest.
The ousted Republican majority was actually a cranky coalition of the Republican Party and the Tea Party. The Tea Party had enough votes to kill lot of Republican legislation in the womb, and modify a lot of the legislation that did pass the House. In many cases, those modifications caused the legislation to be buried in the Senate.
The Republican tsunami of 2010 that produced the cranky coalition replaced a coalition of Democrats and Blue Dogs. The Blue Dogs were candidates carefully selected by Rahm Emanuel for their centrist (sometimes right-of-centrist) positions that could attract voters in swing districts. Once they entered Congress, the Blue Dogs were whipped into shape by Nancy Pelosi. They voted the party line. Their voting records were used as clubs to beat them about the head in the 2010 mid-terms.
The new Democratic coalition is even more fractured and may be harder for Nancy to corral. It consists of Blue Dogs (chosen for their military service), Berniecrats, Democrats and RESIST.
The first big issue will be the election of a Speaker. Twenty six successful candidates explicitly promised voters they would vote against Nancy. A number of others equivocated. Some may remember that failure to keep an explicit promise can lead back to civilian life in two years. My suspicion is that Nancy will round up enough votes by allowing some to vote against her and some to vote “present”. The “present” voters will be able to pretend that they opposed her, and their votes will lower the number needed to secure her victory. The result will be that her level of control will probably be less than it was the last time she swung the gavel.
The RESIST faction will try to introduce articles of impeachment on day one of the new congressional session. In the event there is not damning evidence in the special counsel report, that move could backfire badly. It would provide Trump with perfect targets. Even I could write good lines about Jerry, Maxine and Adam.
The Berniecrats want free college, free healthcare for all, student loan forgiveness, $15 minimum wage, and guaranteed income for all. It does not appear to me that anywhere near a majority of voters want any of that stuff. Almost all of the candidates supported by Bernie, Alexandria and Pocahontas lost. Lots of Trumpster congressmen were defeated by centrist Democrats. The electoral lesson for both fringes seems to have been that moderation was the winner. The problem for Nancy and establishment Democrats is that the energy (and source of a vast trove of small donations) in their party is in the Socialist wing. They ignore that reality at their peril.
The most fascinating group will be the Blue Dogs. They could actually combine with the Republican minority to get some legislation passed. I suspect that Nancy will see to it that doesn’t happen, except in a few cases where she cuts a deal with Trump. In 2020, they will face the same problem that last group of Blue Dogs faced.
The very sad upshot of all of this is that none of the huge problems we face will be addressed at all. Partisan posturing and 2020 positioning will dominate the next two years. Our debt will get bigger. Our potholes will get deeper; our bridges and dams more dangerous. The demographic/ entitlement tsunami will be met with heads in the sand. Our military will not have funds to get its maintenance needs met or be able to maintain its technological advantage. Our educational system will continue to flounder. We will not have a sane immigration policy. The press will continue to editorialize instead of analyze. The House of Representatives, the People’s Chamber, should be leading us to a better place. It will instead be facing inward.
