Venezuela
Things are bad in the land of Bolivarian Socialism. We need to do something about it. Aside from the humanitarian crisis on our doorstep, there are national security threats. But for Cuban secret police, Russian military advisers, and Chinese loans, Maduro would have long since fled to Cuba. We should not be allowing China and Russia to create havoc in the Western Hemisphere and we definitely do not want the enabling trio, or any combination amongst them, to get effective control of one of the largest oil deposits on earth. That would create endless potential for trouble. We might eventually phase out the use of hydrocarbons to run the world’s economy, but for the near term is runs on 100 million barrels of oil a day.
It would be fairly easy for us to achieve the overthrow of Maduro with military force. The Venezuelan military has a lot of Russian gear, but the command structure is full of political hacks who have no combat experience. Most of the soldiers stay in the barracks because there is food available there. However, our sad history of ham handed military & intelligence adventures in Central and South America leaves us open to charges of Yankee Imperialism. We have to come up with a more subtle solution.
We should exploit our friendly relationship with Colombia, and our newly found friendship with Brazil, to set up relief sites on their respective borders with Venezuela. The UN has some camps, but their scope is not nearly enough to deal with the problem. We could provide food and medical help to those in need and shelter for those fearing prosecution. Most importantly, we could set up camps for any military defectors. We could offer training and organization. If enough troops gathered and enough leadership emerged, a force of Venezuelan citizens sufficient to take on Maduro’s military would be created. If we offered the prospect of logistic support and no-fly protection for the invaders, I suspect Maduro’s generals would cave in a hurry. They are happy to exploit the regime for personal enrichment; I doubt they want to die to defend it.
There are other forms of persuasion that might also move things along. Cuba is desperate for the hard currency brought ashore by cruise ship passengers in Havana. We could end that trade instantly. We could also blockade oil shipments from Venezuela to deny Maduro hard currency.
If we don’t take some effective action, Putin will achieve in our back yard what he achieved in Syria. He will have built a client state. He will be a major and disruptive force in the politics of our hemisphere. Putin’s global aim is the destruction of democracy as a political system. He wants to return to a world of dueling autocrats, in which he sees himself as a dominant player. We need to stop him.
