Vlad, The Barbarian
Vladimir Putin is the latest in a long line of Russian czars. The Russians seem to prefer that form of government.
The rest of the world’s political leaders would do well to read a little Russian history in order to get some context about his behavior. Instead of dealing with him in 21st Century terms, they should be working in a 17th Century fashion. Vlad’s missions are to survive court intrigue, defend his empire and expand it. Being part of the “community of nations” does not enter into his calculus. He views the G-8 and G-20 as gaggles of the naive, which he can jerk around at will.
He starts with a weak hand. The Russian population is contracting. The rate of alcoholism is the second highest on earth (behind only America’s indigenous population). The economy is stagnant. Aside from the armaments industry, there is little innovation.
Ignoring all of the obvious moral implications, he is playing his weak hand very well. He has preempted or obliterated all alternate sources of political power in Russia. He has expanded his empire by turning Belarus into a satellite, and conquered parts of Georgia and Ukraine, with minimum losses in men and material. He has the private parts of most of Europe in the palm of his hand, because their factories shut down and homes go unheated but for the natural gas he supplies. Periodically, he shuts down a pipeline to remind his customers who is in charge. He conducts regular and seemingly sloppy assassinations of opponents to send a clear message to anyone thinking of speaking up. He has established a permanent presence in the Mediterranean, a Russian goal for the last 800 years. His popularity with the Russian people is wide and deep.
How is it that the world’s civilized nations might go about confronting Vlad’s behavior? That is a vital question, because he will continue to work to expand his empire by all means at his disposal, until he is confronted in an effective fashion. Financial sanctions and expulsions of spies posing as diplomats aren’t getting the job done.
Washington is full of intelligence agencies and think tanks that are full of smart people. They should be able to come up with something. In the mean time, I have a small suggestion. Shut down the cruise ship trade. I believe that has already been done in Crimea, but St. Petersburg is a much juicer target. A vast amount of foreign currency is left there by hoards of tourists arriving on massive cruise ships, which usually stay there for two or three days. Vlad has a desperate need for that currency in an era of low oil prices. Fueling German factories does not produce enough revenue to support his ambitions.
It would be fairly easy to simply order any cruise ship organization based in the United States to boycott all Russian ports. The rest of the lines could be informed that they would be prohibited from calling on American ports if they continued calling on Russian ports.
In almost any fight, a good rule of thumb is to seek vulnerability and exploit it. Pain is a great way to induce a change of behavior. We should hit Vlad where he is vulnerable and the effect will be painful.
